What’s going on here?
Donald Trump winning the US election last week is likely to have adverse effects on international climate action. Whilst his environmental policies are yet to be announced, his position as a climate sceptic, framing the crisis as a ‘hoax’, poses a serious threat to international decarbonisation efforts.
What does this mean?
Characterised by his ‘drill, baby, drill’ mandate, domestically Trump is likely to promote an expansion of oil and gas exploration, remove environmental protection and impose heavy tariffs on imported Chinese electric vehicles and solar panels. Research suggests that Trump’s victory could lead to an additional 4bn tonnes of US emissions by 2030 compared to Joe Biden’s plans. Internationally, we are likely to see another exit of the US from the Paris Agreement, and in his incoming second term Trump is also threatening to pull the US out of the UNFCCC.
Why should we care?
As Biden’s negotiators are attending the upcoming COP29 on behalf of the US, there is no obligation for the Trump administration to commit to their agreements. This sets an ambivalent tone for the international conference, with other countries like China likely to approach the event with hesitation, weakening international momentum. Trump’s influence could erode trust and confidence in climate negotiations, casting a shadow over COP29 and putting more pressure on other major economies like the EU to take the lead. Trump’s stance threatens progress on decarbonisation at a critical moment for climate action worldwide. However, with the impacts of climate change accelerating; Trump’s victory also sends an alternative message to the rest of the world; empowering them to step up and bolster climate action. Ultimately we don’t have time to waste.
Be curious
- See the results breakdown for the US election.
- To read more on how climate change was discussed in US election, follow this link
- Listen to a recent BBC The Climate Question podcast on the politicisation of climate change in the US.
- Check out the COP29 agenda for the conference starting this week.
Featured image by AFP via The Japan Times
